Khartoum immediately announced the liberation of the area having defeated SPLA forces, contradicting Juba's assertion of an orderly withrawl over three days. Despite the rhetoric, the move offers new hope over the recent escalation of violence in the region.
Until this moment, the border situation had continued unabated since the beginning of the year culminating in the North's declaration on Monday that they considered South Sudan an enemy state. with no sign of withdrawl of SPLA forces from Heglig and significant fighting in South Kordofan.
Of special interest to insiders is the sudden change in South Sudan's policy, previously one of careful restraint and proper pusuit of political solutions, compared to the North's aggresive and confrontational (although mostly by proxy) actions. It is difficult to judge whether this is had been a considered move by SPLM leadership or a stance forced on them by SPLA action. The invasion of the Heglig area was a serious policy deviation from the SPLM bringing international condemnation they were hitherto careful to avoid.
Warrior Security's South Sudan Country Manager Jonathan Simpson commented on Thursday: "With the UNSC now threatening sanctions to pressure both sides to end hostilities, we might have a better idea of South Sudanese intentions," and Simpson's assessment seems born out by the recent withdrawl. Simpson continued: " The South have been increasingly unhappy with the Addis talks, siting the insensitive stance of Thabo Mbeki and the African Union, leaving aside the ludicrous demands the North are making for oil pipeline transit fees. The South are very keen to have the talks mediated by the Kenyans, who they feel have a better understanding of the region. So if this is a negociation tactic to demonstrate to the the North that they are prepared to fight, we may expect to see them withdraw from Heglig..."
With over 1,200 security personnel in South Sudan, Simpson and Warrior prove a reliable source of information and analysis, and whilst the main areas of conflict are as yet concentrated in the Northern regions, Simpson comments on the current situation in Juba:
"Juba is isolated from the recent escalation and will largely continue to be so. The main threat to UN and international operatives and companies will be criminality, however due to recent events we can expect a heightened Police and SPLA presence, and the imposition of unannounced curfews. We have previously experienced the 'lockdown' approach' taken by the civil authorities in response to a heightened threat situation, but advise patience with these understandable precautions."